AUD/USD rises after retail sales tick higher

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6667, up 0.25% on the day at the time of writing.

Australia’s retail sales rise 0.1%, CPI next

Australian consumers remain frugal and cautious, as retail sales rose just 0.1% m/m April. This was a rebound from the 0.4% decline in March and beat the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 1.3%, compared to 0.9% in March.

Retail activity has been flat and that could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates later this year. The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% for four straight times and the markets are anticipating that the next move will be a cut. However, the RBA has sounded hawkish and the RBA minutes of the May 7th meeting indicated that policy makers discussed a rate hike at the May 7th meeting. This was due to concerns that inflation, particularly services prices has been stickier than expected and that the path to the RBA’s 2-3% target will not be smooth. Australia releases April CPI early on Wednesday, which is expected to tick lower to 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% in March.

Fed members continue to send out a hawkish message about rate policy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he would want to see “many more months of positive inflation data” before the Fed lowers rates, adding that a rate hike should not be ruled out. Kashakri said earlier this month that rates need to stay in restrictive territory for “an extended period”. The markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate cut at 52%, according to the CME’s FedWatch.

AUD/USD Technical

0.6643 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 0.6578
0.6695 and 0.6760 are the next resistance lines

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.