Germany 30 Technical: New intraday record high, short-term bullish trend intact

  • Cleared above 16,300 major range resistance in place since November 2021.
  • Watch the 16,440 key short-term support.

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Germany 30 Technical: Bullish momentum remains intact” published on 24 November 2023. Click here for a recap.

The price actions of the Germany 30 Index (a proxy for the DAX futures) have continued to surge upward since our last analysis and cleared above the 16,200 short-term resistance as highlighted in our prior report.

Yesterday, 5 December it managed to have a daily close (closed at 16,534) above the 16,300 major range resistance in place since November 2021 that was tested in July 2023 where it printed an all-time high of 16,530 before it staged a decline of -11.8% in the next three months to print a low of 14,585 on October 2023.

Breakout above major range resistance

Fig 1: Germany 30 long-term secular trend as of 6 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The risk of a failure bullish breakout above 16,300 has a lower odd this time round because the long-term monthly RSI momentum indicator has exhibited a bullish momentum reading as it shaped a higher low right at the 50 level and still has further room to manoeuvre to the upside before it reaches its overbought region (above 70 level).

All in all, the Germany 30 Index may be undergoing a major impulsive upmove sequence in place since the October 2022 low of 11,795 within its long-term secular uptrend trend phase from March 2009 low of 3,585. The intermediate major resistance zone stands at 17,780/18,170 (upper boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel & Fibonacci extension cluster).

Watch the 16,440 key short-term support

Fig 2: Germany 30 minor short-term trend as of 6 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Based on the shorter-term hourly chart, the Germany 30 Index has continued to oscillate within the upper half of a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 27 October 2023 low, and today’s price action has ticked higher to print a fresh intraday all-time high of 16,597 at this time of the writing.

The recent exit from its overbought region as depicted by the hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition that highlights a higher probability of a minor pull-back in price actions rather than a steeper bearish reversal.

If the 16,440 key short-term pivotal support (also the median line of the medium-term ascending channel) manages to hold, the short-term bullish tone is likely to remain intact with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 16,660/700 and 16,780/850.

However, a breakdown below 16,440 negates the bullish tone to expose the next intermediate support at 16,215 (the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel).

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Kelvin Wong

Kelvin Wong

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities. Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets. In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.