Dow – A stellar week in response to very promising US inflation data

  • Has the US turned a corner on inflation?
  • Earnings may determine whether rally can be sustained
  • Dow testing major resistance level

It’s shaping up to be quite a relaxed end to the week, one in which we’ve seen stellar gains on the back of some very encouraging inflation data from the US.

While there have been occasions when stock markets have performed well this year despite not appearing to reflect the fundamental reality of rapid economy-threatening rate hikes, the inability to really turn a corner on inflation has held them back. But perhaps that corner is now being turned.

Inflation was already well off its highs but there was something about this report that was different. Not only did it beat on the headline and core level but both of the monthly readings were also incredibly positive. Now it’s just a question of whether that can be sustained.

The light at the end of the tightening tunnel is getting brighter and investors are increasingly confident of emerging after one more hike in two weeks. At which point the focus will turn to the economy and whether a soft landing can still be achieved before the discussion pivots to rate cuts.

The next risk comes from earnings season which gets underway today, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting on the second quarter.

Can the Dow break a more than one-year resistance level?

The Dow is back trading around its highest levels in more than a year on the back of this week’s strong performance. It’s tested these levels a couple of times over the last month and many more over the last year, each time being pushed back, but could this time be different?

US30 Daily

Source – OANDA on Trading View

The fundamentals look more attractive which could be enough to give it that extra bump. But I’m not convinced by the momentum indicators, on this chart being the stochastic and MACD. They look a little underwhelming and the same is true on the 4-hour chart. That’s certainly not definitive and a breakout could provide that momentum that there doesn’t appear to currently be but they aren’t particularly supportive at this point.

As far as further resistance above is concerned, 35,000 stands out as the next test, with 36,000 above that then key. We could see some resistance around 35,500 as well as price has responded to it in the past.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam