- Ueda hints that BoJ could raise rates
- How seriously should we take the comments amid intervention speculation?
- Divergences suggest traders becoming nervous
A relatively quiet start to the week from an economic data perspective but we’re still seeing some decent moves in the markets this morning, particularly in the Japanese yen.
The yen has jumped this morning on the back of comments from Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, who hinted that interest rates may not be negative for much longer.
Ueda reportedly claimed that if they become confident that prices and wages will keep rising sustainably, which could be as early as year-end, then an end to negative interest rates could be one option on the table. The focus for so long has been on the central bank’s yield curve control policy but perhaps these comments suggest abandoning that will not be the first major move.
Of course, at a time of so much speculation around currency intervention and a rapidly weakening yen, you have to wonder what the real motivation behind these comments is and how seriously to take them. Only time will tell but for now, they’ve managed to give the yen a boost.
Are we seeing signs of nerves?
The dollar has run into resistance repeatedly over the last week around 148 against the yen which suggests there’s some apprehension around these levels.
Source – OANDA on Trading View
We are very much in the territory where interventions have occurred in the past which may explain those nerves and Ueda’s comments gave traders further reason to fear action that could significantly boost the yen.
You can see from the MACD in particular that recent rallies have not been matched by increasing momentum and that divergence may support the idea of nerves creeping in.
A move below 145 would be interesting, with the area around here having been notable support recently and resistance back in late June and early July. It’s also around where the Ministry of Finance intervened last September.
Traders have not been fully deterred by verbal intervention in the past though and if we do see another move to the upside, it will be interesting to see whether it’s matched by momentum or a deepening divergence.
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