GBP/USD – A steady start as recovery rally starts to lose momentum

  • US GDP, inflation, and jobless claims to come this week
  • BoE Governor Bailey insists no rate cuts for the “foreseeable future”
  • GBPUSD losing momentum at key technical zone

It’s been quite a calm start to the week which isn’t entirely surprising given the lack of events on the calendar today.

All data now, particularly that of the US, is being looked at through the prism of what it will mean for the final central bank meeting of the year and the new projections it’ll be accompanied by.

Since the last meeting, the data has been encouraging and we’ll get another batch before the Fed meets on 13 December. This week we’ll get the October PCE inflation data – the Fed’s preferred measure – as well as third-quarter GDP, ISM manufacturing, and jobless claims.

Outside of the US, we’ll get flash HICP inflation data for the eurozone, PMIs from China, CPI figures for Australia, and a rate decision from the RBNZ. On top of all that, there’s a plethora of central bank speakers making appearances which will keep us on our toes.

BoE Governor Bailey got the week off to a start on that front, pushing back against expectations for rate cuts from Q2, claiming he doesn’t expect any for the “foreseeable future”. A vague commitment as ever but all we can expect from policymakers for now. There’s still a way to go and as Bailey highlighted, getting from peak to now is likely to be much easier than from here to 2%.

Divergence appearing around key resistance zone

The pound has performed strongly against the dollar this month but we may be seeing signs of the rally running on fumes.

GBPUSD Daily

Source – OANDA on Trading View

The 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels were always looking like big tests for the pair, particularly the former as it aligned with the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern over the summer.

While the pair has breached the 50% level, it’s already pared those gains to trade only marginally higher on the day. And it’s done so while failing to record higher highs on the stochastic and appearing to record a second consecutive lower high on the MACD histogram.

This may not be a reversal signal in itself but it does suggest the pair is increasingly losing momentum in a potentially important resistance zone.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam