EUR/GBP Technical: Minor downtrend intact

  • EUR/GBP is still evolving within a major sideways range since August 2017 with its key resistance and support at 0.9300 and 0.8300.
  • A minor downtrend phase has started to develop from its 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979.
  • Short-term downside momentum remains intact below 0.8750 key short-term resistance.

Since the start of this week, the EUR/GBP cross pair has continued its drop by 0.9% to print its current intraweek low of 0.8671 where market participants anticipant that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance throughout 2023 after its monetary policy decision due later today.

It is widely expected that BoE will hike its policy interest rate by another 25 basis points to 4.5%, its 12th consecutive rise and it is still way behind a red-hot March CPI print of 10.1% year-on-year inflationary growth for the UK.

Let’s now take a look at the recent EUR/GBP movements from a technical analysis perspective.

Fig 1:  EUR/GBP trend as of 11 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Since its 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979, the EUR/GBP cross rate has started to evolve into a minor downtrend phase with the upper and lower limits of its short-term descending channel at 0.8865 and 0.8630 respectively. In the longer-term (monthly chart), it is still trapped inside a major sideways range configuration since August 2017.

Since last Friday, 5 May, its price actions have broken and traded below the key 200-day moving average now acting as a resistance at around 0.8730. In addition, the 4-hour RSI oscillator has rebounded from its recently reached oversold region (below 30%) but has not formed any bullish divergence signal yet.

In addition, the 4-hour RSI is still capped below by a corresponding descending resistance at the 50% level. These observations suggest that short-term downside momentum remains intact. The next intermediate support to watch will be at 0.8630 and a break below it exposes the next support at 0.8570.

However, a clearance above 0.8750 short-term pivotal resistance negates the bearish tone to see the descending channel resistance coming in at around 0.8865 which also confluences with the minor swing high areas of 23 March/27 April 2023.

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Kelvin Wong

Kelvin Wong

Senior Market Analyst, OANDA at OANDA
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.

Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.

In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.