CHF/JPY Technical: Rallied above 43-year high

  • Current impulsive up move of CHF/JPY has cleared above major resistances of 157.98 & 158.45.
  • Short-term momentum remains bullish.
  • 159.90 is the key short-term support to watch.

The CHF/JPY cross has continued to its relentless rally as it broke above key resistance levels; 157.98 (the high obtained right during the EUR/CHF unpegged shock in January 2015) and 158.45 (Oct 1979 major swing high).

Broke above Oct 1979 major swing high of 158.45

Fig 1: CHF/JPY long-term secular trend as of 27 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The next key medium-tern resistance zone stands at 163.20/166.70 defined by a cluster of Fibonacci extension levels (see 3-month chart).

The key medium-term support rests at 146.60 defined by the 200-day moving average and the former swing highs of July/October 2022.

The short-term uptrend remains intact

Fig 2: CHF/JPY minor short-term trend as of 27 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The price actions of CHF/JPY have continued to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place since the 13 June 2023 low of 153.37 and traded above the upward-sloping 5-day moving average (see 1-hour chart).

The hourly RSI has just staged a bullish breakout which indicates that short-term momentum remains positive.

Watch the 159.90 key short-term pivotal support with the next resistances coming in at 162.00 (psychological level) and 163.20 (the intersection between the upper boundaries of both the medium-term and minor ascending channels).

However, a break below 159.90 negates the bullish tone to expose the next minor supports at 158.70 and 157.20.

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Kelvin Wong

Kelvin Wong

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities. Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets. In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.