- Bearish readings seen in the daily and hourly RSI momentum indicators have reinforced the weakening medium-term and short-term impulsive up moves of CHF/JPY.
- Watch the key short-term resistance at 169.65 for CHF/JPY.
The major uptrend phase of the CHF/JPY has started to show signs of bullish exhaustion at this juncture which increases the risk of a multi-week corrective decline to retest its 50-day moving and the median line of a major ascending channel in place since 13 January 2023 low, acting at a support zone of 166.55/165.10.
Daily RSI has broken below its former ascending support
Fig 1: CHF/JPY major & medium-term trends as of 27 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
The medium-term bullish momentum of CHF/JPY from the 3 October 2023 low of 160.00 has started to dissipate where the daily RSI momentum indicator has staged a recent bearish breakdown on 20 November and retested its former parallel support at the 60 level.
Watch the key short-term resistance at 169.65
Fig 2: CHF/JPY minor short-term trend as of 27 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
In the shorter time frame as seen on the 1-hour chart, the price actions of CHF/JPY have started to oscillate within an impending minor descending channel from its recent all-time high print of 170.54 on 16 November 2023.
Also, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region.
All in all, these observations have advocated the start of a potential multi-week corrective decline scenario for CHF/JPY.
If the 169.65 key short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed to the upside, the CHF/JPY cross pair may see a slide to retest the near-term support of 168.00 (also the 20-day moving average), and below it exposes the next intermediate supports at 166.55 and 165.90 next (also the 50-day moving average and the lower boundary of the minor descending channel).
However, a clearance above 169.65 invalidates the bearish scenario for a retest on the 170.50 major resistance.
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Kelvin Wong