AUD/JPY Technical: Rallied to 6-month high

  • AUD/JPY has staged a bullish breakout from its major descending channel and traded back above its 200-day moving average.
  • Short-term momentum remains positive supported by the 1-hour RSI oscillator.
  • Key short-term support to watch for AUD/JPY is at 92.70.

The ongoing 11-week up move from the 24 March 2023 low of 86.06 seen in the AUD/JPY has been reinforced by several positive technical elements; the cross pair has rallied by 755 pips (+8.8%) from its 24 March 2023 low to today’s current intraday level of 93.60 (6-month high) at this time of the writing.

Fig 1: AUD/JPY medium-term trend as of 9 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Fig 2: AUD/JPY minor short-term trend as of 9 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Bullish breakout from the major descending channel from September 2022 high

AUD/JPY has managed to exit from the upper boundary (resistance) of the major descending channel on 6 June 2023 and so far, traded above it which now turns into a pull-back support at 92.70. These observations suggest that the AUD/JPY may be in undergoing a potential new leg of medium-term up move (refer to daily chart)

Short-term momentum remains positive

As seen from the 1-hour chart, the price actions of AUD/JPY have started to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place since the 1 June 2023 low of 90.26 coupled with a momentum bullish breakout condition seen in the 1-hour RSI oscillator.

The next intermediate resistances stand at 94.50 and 95.00 (the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel). However, failure to hold above the 92.70 key short-term pivotal support negates the bullish tone to expose the next support at 91.90 (also the 200-day moving average).

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Kelvin Wong

Kelvin Wong

Senior Market Analyst, OANDA at OANDA
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.

Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.

In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.