AUD/JPY Technical: At risk of a minor decline sequence

  • An impending minor bearish reversal “Double Top” has been formed in the last two weeks.
  • Failure to have a clear break above 98.40 long-term secular range resistance in place since October 2007 after a fifth retest last Friday, 24 November.
  • Watch the key short-term resistance at 98.00.

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/JPY Technical: Holding above the 20-day moving average published on 22 November 2023. Click here for a recap.

The price actions of the AUD/JPY cross-pair have shaped the expected push-up right above the 96.85 short-term support as highlighted in our earlier analysis and retested the 98.40 long-term secular range resistance for the fifth time last Friday, 24 November.

Impending bearish minor “Double Top” sighted

Fig 1: AUD/JPY minor short-term trend as of 30 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The AUD/JPY has started to inch down lower after last Friday’s retest on the 98.40 long-term secular range resistance as price actions have conjured into a potential minor bearish reversal “Double Top” configuration as seen on its short-term hourly chart since 16 November 2023 swing high.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit a potential resurgence of short-term bearish momentum as it failed to break above a parallel resistance at the 55 level.

Watch the 98.00 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 96.85 (the neckline support of the minor “Double Top”) exposes the next intermediate support zone of 96.10/95.80 (also the 50-day moving average).

On the flipside, a clearance above 98.00 invalidates the bearish tone for a retest on the 98.40/55 long-term secular range resistance.

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Kelvin Wong

Kelvin Wong

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities. Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets. In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.