- The recent decline of -6.8% from its 10 August 2023 high has not damaged the medium-term uptrend phase of WTI oil.
- Today’s price actions have indicated a revival of a short-term uptrend phase.
- Watch the key short-term support at US$80.90.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Time for a potential short-term pullback” published on 15 August 2023. Click here for a recap.
The price actions of West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) have indeed shaped the expected minor short-term pull-back and broke below US$79.80 per barrel minor support as it printed an intraday low of US$79.11 last Thursday, 17 August.
All in all, it has recorded an accumulated decline of -6.8% from its 10 August 2023 high of US$84.92 but from a technical analysis perspective, the medium-term uptrend phase in place since 28 June 2023 low of US$66.95 remains intact.
Medium-term momentum has turned positive
Fig 1: West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 21 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
Recent price actions of West Texas Oil have led to the emergence of an imminent “golden crossover” bullish condition seen in the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
In addition, the daily RSI oscillator has also just staged a rebound right at a key parallel support at the 50 level. These observations suggest that medium-term bullish momentum may have resurfaced which in turn increases the odds of the continuation of a potential impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since the 28 June 2023 low.
Evolving into a minor short-term uptrend
Fig 2: West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 21 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
Today’s price action has just surpassed the 20-day moving average which suggests the potential start of a minor short-term uptrend phase for West Texas Oil.
Watch the US$80.90 key short-term pivotal support to see the next intermediate resistance coming in at US$83.00 before a retest on the 10 August 2023 swing high of US$84.90.
However, a break below US$80.90 negates the bearish tone to expose the US$79.55/79.10 support.
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Kelvin Wong