Oil rises, gold in choppy waters

Oil marches higher as optimism fades around Ukraine

It’s been another volatile session in the oil market, with doubts over US-Russian diplomatic efforts lifting prices. Oil prices were declining early in the day at the prospect of a Biden-Putin meeting but as hopes around that have unravelled, the price of oil has climbed.

This is despite a nuclear deal between the US and Iran seemingly being close which could bring 1.3 million barrels per day back into the markets, alleviating some of those pressures we’re currently seeing. OPEC+ is continuing to struggle to hit its quotas which has largely created the imbalance we’re seeing, with the group’s compliance hitting 129% last month, up from 122% in November.

Gold choppy around psychological resistance barrier

It’s been a choppy start to the week in the gold market, with the yellow metal initially seeing some profit-taking but it quickly found itself back in demand as the headlines turned ugly once more. Gold continues to see resistance around USD 1,900 though, which is proving to be a major psychological barrier.

While there is still hope for diplomacy, which would reduce gold’s safe-haven appeal, there’s certainly reason to believe an invasion could happen at any moment. That will continue to see gold well supported and, in the absence of serious progress on Thursday when Blinkin meets Lavrov, a break may not be far away.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam