Oil reverses gains, gold steady, bitcoin nervy

Oil reverses gains after inventory data

The rally in oil looked set to extend to the fourth day, as supply concerns outweigh recession fears ahead of the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow. The OPEC meeting today ended without any decisions being made amid speculation around Saudi Arabia and UAE’s spare capacity.

I’m not sure it makes an enormous difference as neither were likely to save the day anyway or they would have already. And the group as a whole is failing miserably in its targets, running at 256% compliance and overall shortfall of more than half a billion barrels.

I’m not sure what exactly we can hope for tomorrow that will make any difference. Although a formal acknowledgement that there’s little more they can do could cause quite a stir.

Crude prices did flip midway through the US session following the EIA inventory data, with WTI and Brent now off more than 2% on the day, having been 2% higher earlier.

Will we see a gold breakout?

Gold continues to thrill no one as it whipsaws around $1,830 within a narrow range.

Traders may have eyed the ECB Forum today with the hope that a comment from one or more of the central bank heads injects some life into the yellow metal and as it turns out, they’ve been left disappointed.

Which begs the question, how long do we have to wait now for a breakout in gold? It may not be an obvious source that proves to be the catalyst for such a move, of course, but there’s still plenty ahead that could do it.

There is an abundance of central bank speak and economic data left this week ​ – including inflation tomorrow – and with there being so much underlying anxiety in the market, anything could eventually set it off.


Bitcoin has survived another day above $20,000 having traded briefly below it earlier on. It’s getting very nervy in the crypto space and another significant break below here could bring fresh anxiety and more pain.

It’s still hard to create much of a bullish case for bitcoin beyond its admirable resilience but how long can that sustain it? The broader environment in financial markets certainly isn’t helping.

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Former Craig

Former Craig

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.