Oil remains choppy, gold eyes BoE decision

Oil remains choppy but edging towards the upper end of its range

Oil prices remain very volatile as we’ve seen over the last week. Trading has been very choppy as traders have tried to reconcile weaker Chinese growth, slightly more modest support from the PBOC, more hawkish central banks, and resilient economies. We appear to be in a position where we’re either waiting for the economy to break or for central banks to achieve their soft landing aims.

Brent remains in its lower trading range for this year between $70-$80 but we are getting closer to the upper end of that and there’s still plenty of momentum in the move. A break above $80 could be a very bullish development and suggest traders are feeling less pessimistic about the economy.

Gold sell-off losing momentum ahead of the BoE

Gold has been seriously testing its recent range lows over the last 48 hours but so far it’s struggling to generate enough momentum for a significant move lower. Despite Powell’s hawkish delivery in Congress, the yellow metal recovered earlier losses to close only marginally lower on the day, albeit below the lower end of the $1,940-$1,980 range it previously largely traded within.

Ahead of day two of his testimony, this time in front of the Senate, gold is trading relatively flat and potentially in need of another bearish catalyst. The sell-off is losing momentum although it could get an extra nudge from the BoE if we see a more hawkish shift.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.