Oil hit with a one-two punch, gold lower on strong dollar


Oil prices are weakening as crude demand outlook is hit by a one-two punch from China’s rising COVID cases and Wall Street jitters that inflation is hitting the US economy much harder than analysts were expecting. Oil will struggle to hold the USD 100 level if China’s Covid situation deteriorates much further. ​ Macau shutting down all non-essential businesses including casinos for one week caught everyone’s attention and could be a big red flag that we could see harsher restrictions down the road. This week has a couple of big events that include an inflation report and bank earnings that will likely suggest the US economy is weakening quickly and that will weigh on how much travel Americans do for the rest of the year. ​

Energy traders will pay close to President Biden’s trip to the Middle East, but expectations are low for any meaningful oil production increase commitments to come from the Gulf nations. ​ The main purpose is to improve US relations with Saudi Arabia and that means Biden will have a careful approach on how he asks for help with pressuring Russia and China. ​ ​ ​ ​

Weighing on crude is also a relentlessly strong US dollar that could see further strength leading up to this week’s pivotal inflation report on Wednesday. ​

Gold falls on recession fears

Gold prices are lower as recession jitters continue to send the US dollar higher. ​ Inflation is playing tug-of-war with gold and the precious metal is trying to hold the line. A hot inflation report on Wednesday will cement aggressive Fed rate hike expectations for later this month and drive up expectations for September’s meeting. With Wall Street focused on if the Fed will send this economy into a recession, king dollar will likely remain the trade and that is a difficult environment for gold. ​

Gold is still vulnerable here and could see selling pressure test the USD 1700 level, with the USD 1670 area proving major support. ​

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.