Oil higher, gold slips, bitcoin vulnerable

Oil rallies as OPEC+ fall further short of targets

The easing of China’s zero-Covid policy helped oil to the third day of gains following a decent correction in recent weeks. As did reports that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are producing near capacity, in stark contrast to claims that both are holding back and could do more.

To make matters worse, OPEC+ compliance stood at 256% in May, 2.7 million barrels per day below target taking the total shortfall under the agreement to more than half a billion.

Even sanctions being lifted on Iran and Venezuela can’t do much against that backdrop. It may well take a recession to return oil prices to sustainable levels any time soon.

Can the ECB Forum inject life into gold?

Gold has slipped a little this week as yields have edged higher, supporting the dollar and weighing on the yellow metal. It still hasn’t moved particularly far though and very much remains rangebound.

Tomorrow’s central bank event in Portugal could inject some life into the gold price, having spent weeks now in a consolidation phase. Support remains at $1,800, with $1,870 key resistance to the upside.

Slipping back towards $20,000

It’s been much the same in bitcoin, although I’m sure the crypto crowd will be relieved at that given the stream of negative headlines over the last couple of months.

I fear more may follow in the weeks ahead and I wonder whether the community does too, given its inability to get any traction above $20,000.

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Former Craig

Former Craig

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.