Brexit votes go as planned; key China data in focus

Brexit – Parliament votes to reject No-Deal Brexit anytime

USD – Dollar sinks as risk appetite dwindles   

Stocks – S&P 500 recaptures 2,800 but well-off highs after FAA reverses stance on 737s

Treasuries – Demand falls on 30 year

Oil – Extends gain as dollar remains under pressure

Gold – Gets groove back as dollar declines


Today’s Brexit votes went mostly as planned as Parliament declared the UK will not leave the EU without a withdrawal deal in place.  Expectations are for tomorrow’s vote see an extension for Article 50 and the British pound could continue to rise if the extension receives EU approval and is 2-months and not over a year.

Parliament rejected a no-deal Brexit in any scenario by a 312-308 vote.  After yesterday’s defeat, the PM May’s days appear numbered.  Her Brexit deals have lost by a historic 230 votes and 149 votes.  She may try to push a third Brexit deal by March 20th and that would be expected to fail.  The next course of action would probably a confidence vote that could mean the end of her term.


The US dollar fell against most of its trading partners as supportive monetary policy and stabilizing global growth concerns suggest the demand for safe-haven currencies could ease.  Tonight, a wrath of Chinese data could confirm the weakness is slowing with the world’s second largest economy.  The February reading for industrial production is expected to decline from 6.2% to 5.6%, while retails sales could fall from 9.0% to 8.2%.  Fixed assets is more of a leading indicator and could see an improvement from 5.9% to 6.1%. The recent pickup could be helped by the massive bond issuance by the local Chinese government.


Same story, different day.  US stocks were supported early in New York on improving producer price data and durable good orders.  The economic releases suggests the Fed’s policy is appropriate and the dovish pivot remains in place.  The S&P 500 index rallied above the psychological 2,800 level and at one point over the 2,817 resistance level that was in place since October.

Stocks did see a quick reversal once President Trump broke the news that US would ground all of Boeing’s 737 Max aircrafts.  The move initially dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average sharply lower along with Boeing shares, as this was viewed as a major reversal from the Federal Aviation Administration.  The Boeing news did take S&P 500 index tentatively below the noted 2,817 level and for momentum traders to remain bullish we may need to see price finish the week above here.


A soft US 30-year auction for primary buyers saw weaker demand than the 10-year auction from earlier in the week.  The $16 billion auction helped drive yield higher across the Treasury curve with the 10-year rising 2 basis points to 2.621%.  The recent trend with yields have been lower over the past 10 days and today’s rise supports yield curve steepening.  Concerns over the US deficit and debt ceiling may be reflected in falling demand for longer term debt.  The Fed’s put is likely to keep yields down, but US debt concerns will grow in the summer.


The EIA report was very bullish for oil prices.  The weekly EIA release showed a decline of 3.9 million barrels from the prior week, well below the median estimate of a build of 3.0 million barrels and exceeding the lowest estimate which called for a decline of 2.7 million barrels.

Oil prices may remain bid as improving demand appears to be driving inventories lower.  Rising US production concerns appear to be offset by the production cuts being delivered by OPEC and friends.


Gold prices continued to rise from a major support base as the dollar fell and despite US stocks hitting a four-month high.  Stabilizing US data supported the overall risk-on trading environment for commodities and uncertainty with US-China trade deal remains a key catalyst for the precious metal.

Yesterday, subdued inflation helped the yellow metal recapture the $1,300 an ounce level.  As more central banks become dovish or pessimistic with their economic forecasts, gold may be poised to rise higher.


Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023.

His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.