Brent Crude – Oil price choppy ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting

  • OPEC+ decision made bigger by four-day delay
  • Global economic outlook to impact the group’s cuts?
  • Brent consolidating near recent lows

The OPEC+ meeting will be this week’s most impactful event in oil markets. Not just because any decision could have direct consequences for price and therefore inflation but also due to the meeting already being pushed back by four days, so there’s clearly some disagreement within the alliance.

The group has always found a way to get an agreement over the line before, even if that means the biggest producers taking on more of the additional commitments so it’s probably safe to say something similar will be achieved this week.

But the question is how far they’ll push it, given the recent trend in oil prices and increasing concerns around global growth next year.

Consolidation below 200-day SMA

Brent has fallen quite far over the last month but since breaking below the 200/233-day simple moving average band, it appears to have stabilized.

Brent Crude Daily

Source – OANDA on Trading View

Clearly, a lot now hangs on the outcome of the meeting and just how committed the alliance – Saudi Arabia and Russia, in particular – is to cutting output.

The most clear level of support below is $78, around the November low, with resistance then falling around $82.50 where past support coincides with the 200/233-day SMA band. A break of either may only come after the announcement but once it does happen, it could get very interesting.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam