ECB just getting started

A mixed session in Asia overnight after Wall Street rebounded on Wednesday, while Europe is poised to open a little higher as well.

It’s been a frankly awful few weeks for stock markets so yesterday’s gains will come as a mild relief, albeit one I don’t think anyone is getting particularly excited about. Given the economic backdrop, this could be nothing more than a dead cat bounce. Of course, there may be more potential next week if the US delivers a favourable inflation report.

With the BoC and RBA both signaling a desire to ease off the brake in the months ahead, the Fed could be next if inflation allows, at which point we could see investors become a little more optimistic as they assess the damage. Perhaps the anticipation of another encouraging inflation report is what’s already tempting investors back in.

More bold action needed from the ECB

Of course, not all central banks are at the dovish pivot stage yet, in fact, the ECB is only just getting started. Today’s rate hike is only the second of the cycle and will take the deposit rate above zero for the first time in a decade. There’s a long way to go to get inflation in check which makes a 75 basis point hike all the more reasonable.

This is the problem with starting the process so late and learning nothing from the experience of other central banks this year, the ECB is forced to play catch up quickly and the economy could suffer the consequences. A recession looms for the euro area and the central bank is not going to make the process any easier.

Lockdowns persist

Asia appears to have missed out on the midweek rebound and China’s zero-Covid strategy may be to blame. The country announced an extension of the lockdown in Chengdu which exacerbated fears of an economic slowdown in China as it continues to push back against the yuan decline, support the property market and boost domestic demand. Clearly, the impact of its Covid stance stretches beyond its own borders and today it appears to be taking a toll on regional markets.

Sell-off momentum fading?

Bitcoin recovered a little on Wednesday after slipping to around $18,500 – its lowest level in almost three months – as broader markets pared recent moves. It’s lower again today though and appears to have quickly run into resistance around $19,500 where it had seen strong support in late August and early September. It’s not looking great for crypto, with bulls perhaps hoping sentiment in the broader markets can sustain some of yesterday’s lift. One thing worth noting is that momentum in the decline appears to be fading which could suggest we’re seeing some profit taking on approach to the June lows, which may support the price in the short-term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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