Oil surges post EIA report, gold vulnerable

Oil rises on EIA surplus

Crude prices rose after the EIA crude oil report posted a surprisingly large draw. US stockpiles plunged by 7.1 million barrels last week, much more than consensus estimate draw of 100K barrels. ​ It looks like the global demand crude outlook is improving as global recession fears ease. This oil market is still very tight and since there is limited spare capacity and expectations of a revival of the Iran nuclear deal are dwindling, it looks like oil needs to head higher. ​ It was a bullish EIA report as US crude exports rose to a record as Europe scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil.

Gold

Gold prices are steadying ahead of the FOMC minutes. ​ Gold’s selloff might be overdone as prices are not crumbling despite a surge in global bond yields. ​ UK inflation hit a 40-year high and US retail sales confirms the economy is still holding up, which could pave the way for more aggressive rate hikes by the Fed.

Gold is now comfortably below the $1800 level and vulnerable to further selling if market participants become convinced a couple more aggressive rate hikes could be in the cards. ​ Gold will likely trade in a range for the rest of the summer as the Fed will likely maintain a data-dependent stance with the Minutes and at next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya