Oil falls on recession fears, gold slides

Oil tumbles as IEA revises down demand growth

Oil prices are continuing to trend lower as we move towards the end of the week, with recession fears once again the driving force. The IEA alluded to economic risks in its monthly oil report, in which it downgraded demand growth this year and next by 100,000 barrels per day.

The downward revision would have been larger but for the stronger rebound in developing and emerging economies led by China. I expect those forecasts will be downgraded further as the economic reality begins to bite.

Gold slides again on stronger dollar

Gold is off more than 1% as the dollar continues to drive higher. The yellow metal is feeling the heat from the inflation data and aggressive tightening in response. We could see its popularity improve once we see the peak in the inflation data, which we may now have in the US, but its tendency for upside surprises will leave investors cautious.

Once the peak is in place and we see signs of inflation pressures retreating, we could see gold back in favour as the economy drifts into recession. For now, a break of USD 1,700 is looking very possible, with USD 1,680 then key. There may well be more pain to come for gold.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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