Stocks might be struggling for direction ahead of a pivotal inflation report, but global growth concerns continue to make rates comes in as the Treasury curve inversion gets deeper. The June inflation report will be a scorcher and help cement market expectations that the Fed will deliver another massive rate hike at the Fed policy meeting at the end of the month. The bond market is clearly sending a strong message that risk aversion is not leaving anytime soon as the lists of risks to the outlook grows: new Omicron variant in Shanghai, currency headwinds for multinationals, stagflation risks abroad, and rising recession risks.
The NFIB small business optimism index saw expectations for future conditions plunge to a record low. The report shows that companies are tightening up their budgets as capital spending fell 23%. Expectations for better business conditions have steadily declined each month this year. The 7-point drop in the plans to increase employment erased the six-point increase saw in May. Every key component in the NFIB report posted a decline, which suggests small businesses are feeling the pain everywhere.
Bitcoin is once again below the USD 20,000 level, but it could be far worse considering the FX pain seen with the euro. Bitcoin will keep its correlation with stocks and that should mean the next 24 hours will be choppy for it until tomorrow’s CPI report.
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