More risk aversion

It didn’t take long for the early week optimism to fade, with Europe posting decent losses on Tuesday and Wall Street coming back to steep declines after the bank holiday weekend.

Once again, it seems, the fault lies in the bond market where yields have been rising across the board which is unsettling investors and taking a heavy toll on risk assets. We have seen some of those rises in yields pared back, which has eased some of the pressure in stocks but anxiety still very much remains.

Markets are now heavily pricing in four rate hikes this year, on the day when the US 10-year yield hit a two-year high. The question now becomes whether we’re nearing peak Fed fear or if there’s more pain to come. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon seems to think so, suggesting late last week that there could be six or seven hikes.

There’s also some talk that we could not only see the first rate hike in March, but that it will be 50 basis points, the largest hike in more than 20 years. That would be quite the shift and miles from where markets and the Fed were positioned just a few months ago. If we do see markets pricing anything like these scenarios, we could see plenty more pain in stocks.

BoJ stands by extraordinary stimulus measures

Despite recent speculation, the Bank of Japan appears to have no appetite at all for raising rates. It did raise its inflation expectations slightly for this year and next but to 1.1% in both cases, well below its 2% target and nowhere near the levels being seen in other countries that are tightening monetary policy. While the Bank did change its assessments of inflation risks from being skewed to the downside to balanced, it remains committed to maintaining its stimulus which weighed a little on the yen.

Goldman slides after profit miss

Goldman Sachs shares are down 8% after reporting lower than expected profits in the fourth quarter, with higher operating costs and weaker trading revenues being key drivers. As we saw last week with JP Morgan, significantly higher compensation has been necessary to retain staff in a competitive market and after a strong performance. Higher wage demands will no doubt be a key theme as we make our way through earnings season, as the banks have already highlighted.

Bitcoin looks vulnerable as risk assets get hit again

It’s been a bit of a choppy session for bitcoin, with prices gyrating between USD 41,000 and USD 42,000. It appears to have found some support around USD 40,000 over the last couple of weeks but it’s still struggling to generate any upside momentum. It continues to look vulnerable, especially at a time when risk assets are getting hit so hard.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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