Key Economic Releases and Events
Monday 29th June
|UK Time||Country||Relevance||Indicator Name||Period|
|00:50||Japan||Medium||Retail Sales YY||May|
|05:00||Thailand||Medium||Manufacturing Prod YY||May|
|08:00||Hungary||Low||Unemployment Rate 3M||May|
|10:00||Euro Zone||Medium||Business Climate||Jun|
|10:00||Euro Zone||Medium||Economic Sentiment||Jun|
|10:00||Euro Zone||Medium||Industrial Sentiment||Jun|
|10:00||Euro Zone||Medium||Services Sentiment||Jun|
|15:00||United States||Medium||Pending Sales Change MM||May|
Tuesday 30th June
|00:00||South Korea||Medium||Industrial Output YY||May|
|00:50||Japan||High||Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA||May|
|02:00||China (Mainland)||Low||NBS Non-Mfg PMI||Jun|
|02:00||China (Mainland)||High||NBS Manufacturing PMI||Jun|
|07:00||United Kingdom||High||GDP QQ||Q1|
|07:00||United Kingdom||High||GDP YY||Q1|
|07:00||Denmark||High||GDP QQ Revised||Q1|
|07:00||Denmark||High||GDP YY Revised||Q1|
|07:30||Switzerland||Medium||Retail Sales YY||May|
|08:00||Czech Republic||Low||Revised GDP YY||Q1|
|09:30||Hong Kong||Low||Retail Sales YY||May|
|10:00||Euro Zone||High||HICP Flash YY||Jun|
|10:00||Euro Zone||High||HICP-X F&E Flash YY||Jun|
|10:30||South Africa||High||GDP QQ Annualised||Q1|
|10:30||South Africa||High||GDP YY||Q1|
|21:30||United States||Not Rated||API weekly crude stocks||22 Jun, w/e|
Wednesday 1st July
|00:50||Japan||High||Tankan Big Mf Idx||Q2|
|01:30||Japan||High||Jibun Bank Mfg PMI||Jun|
|01:30||South Korea||High||IHS Markit Mfg PMI||Jun|
|01:30||Indonesia||High||IHS Markit PMI||Jun|
|01:30||Thailand||Medium||Manufacturing PMI SA||Jun|
|02:45||China (Mainland)||High||Caixin Mfg PMI Final||Jun|
|06:00||India||High||IHS Markit Mfg PMI||Jun|
|07:00||Germany||Medium||Retail Sales YY Real||May|
|07:00||Russia||High||Markit Mfg PMI||Jun|
|07:30||Sweden||Medium||PMI Manufacturing Sect||Jun|
|08:00||Hungary||Low||Manufacturing PMI SA||Jun|
|08:30||Sweden||High||Riksbank Rate||1 Jul|
|08:30||Czech Republic||Medium||Markit PMI||Jun|
|08:45||Italy||High||Markit/IHS Mfg PMI||Jun|
|08:50||France||High||Markit Mfg PMI||Jun|
|08:55||Germany||High||Markit/BME Mfg PMI||Jun|
|08:55||Germany||High||Unemployment Rate SA||Jun|
|09:00||Norway||Medium||Manufacturing DNB PMI SA||Jun|
|09:00||Euro Zone||High||Markit Mfg Final PMI||Jun|
|09:30||United Kingdom||High||Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final||Jun|
|13:15||United States||Medium||ADP National Employment||Jun|
|14:45||United States||High||Markit Mfg PMI Final||Jun|
|15:00||United States||High||ISM Manufacturing PMI||Jun|
|15:30||United States||Not Rated||EIA Weekly Crude Stocks||26 Jun, w/e|
|15:30||Mexico||High||Markit Mfg PMI||Jun|
Thursday 2nd June
|00:00||South Korea||Medium||CPI Growth YY||Jun|
|08:00||Hungary||Low||Trade Balance Final||Apr|
|10:00||Euro Zone||High||Unemployment Rate||May|
|13:30||United States||High||Non-Farm Payrolls||Jun|
|13:30||United States||High||Unemployment Rate||Jun|
|13:30||United States||Medium||Average Earnings MM||Jun|
|13:30||United States||High||Average Earnings YY||Jun|
|13:30||United States||Medium||Average Workweek Hrs||Jun|
|13:30||United States||Low||Labor Force Partic||Jun|
|13:30||United States||High||Initial Jobless Claims||22 Jun, w/e|
|13:30||United States||Medium||Continued Jobless Claims||15 Jun, w/e|
|14:30||Canada||High||Markit Mfg PMI SA||Jun|
|15:00||United States||Low||Durables Ex-Def, R MM||May|
|15:00||United States||Low||Durable Goods, R MM||May|
|15:00||United States||High||Factory Orders MM||May|
|15:00||United States||Low||Factory Ex-Transp MM||May|
Friday 3rd June
|00:01||United Kingdom||Not Rated||GfK Consumer Conf (Adhoc)||Jun|
|02:30||Australia||High||Retail Sales MM||May|
|02:30||Australia||High||Trade Balance G&S (A$)||May|
|02:45||China (Mainland)||High||Caixin Services PMI||Jun|
|06:00||India||High||IHS Markit Svcs PMI||Jun|
|06:00||Singapore||Low||Retail Sales YY||May|
|07:00||Russia||High||Markit Services PMI||Jun|
|08:15||South Africa||High||Std Bank Whole Econ PMI||Jun|
|08:45||Italy||Medium||Markit/IHS Svcs PMI||Jun|
|08:45||Italy||Not Rated||Composite PMI||Jun|
|08:50||France||High||Markit Serv PMI||Jun|
|08:50||France||High||Markit Comp PMI||Jun|
|08:55||Germany||High||Markit Services PMI||Jun|
|08:55||Germany||High||Markit Comp Final PMI||Jun|
|09:00||Norway||Medium||Reg’d Unemployment SA||Jun|
|09:00||Euro Zone||High||Markit Serv Final PMI||Jun|
|09:00||Euro Zone||High||Markit Comp Final PMI||Jun|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Medium||Markit/CIPS Serv PMI Final||Jun|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Not Rated||Composite PMI Final||Jun|
|Thailand||Medium||CPI Headline Inflation||Jun|
|Thailand||Medium||CPI Core Inflation YY||Jun|
The Fed releases the Minutes to their last policy decision and may start to show some signs they are worried about inflation. Policymakers will likely reiterate they are flying blind given the uncertainty about the course of COVID-19 and will likely keep all options on the table for further easing. Negative rates are probably not on their radar unless we see the prospects of longer and deeper recession grow.
A lot of attention will fall on Texas and the halting of their reopening of its economy. Texas was one of their first states to reopen and if they end up having to return to stricter restrictions, Wall Street could anticipate a much deeper recession as the V-shaped recovery could become a W-shaped one. Coronavirus cases are growing by at least 5% in 31 states and this could see lost reopening momentum mean many-out-of-work Americans will struggle to find employment.
With just over four months to go to the US Presidential election, everyone is focusing on former-VP Biden’s strong performance in recent battleground state polls. President Trump is starting to see the deficit widen in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. The coronavirus is surging again and many states may be forced to pause or reverse reopening, as new coronavirus and hospitalizations surge.
Democrats are eagerly awaiting former-VP Biden’s decision on his running mate. Prior to COVID-19, the Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled in July, meaning we should have found out his decision by June. Since the convention was delayed till August 17th, he will have more time to evaluate his candidates. Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters.
This week there has been some signs this week that compromise is possible on some of the more contentious areas of the trade deal but an agreement is still some way off. Thankfully an intense summer of negotiations are planned. Michel Barnier warned that “the real moment of truth” will come in October, which throws the summer deadline out of the window. But let’s face it, that was never going to happen.
The Riksbank meets next week but no change is expected, with interest rates currently sitting at 0%. There may be some movement in the next quarter but a lot can change in that time, in the current environment.
China is embroiled in multiple diplomatic conflicts at the moment, from US/China trade, Hong kong’s security law to the standoff with India in the Himalayas. Any of these could quickly escalate and have negative repercussions across markets around the world.
Sunday, China releases Industrial Profits YTD for May. Expected-22.0%, a slight improvement. Worse than expected could see Asia markets sharply lower on Monday morning. Official and unofficial Manufacturing and Non-Manf PMI’s released throughout the week. Potential for short-term volatility.
Hong Kong security law outline poorly received. 28th June meeting in Beijing to decide exact wording. That has potential to cause market volatility next week when released. Increased protests and depending on wording, negative impact on stock market.
Economy continues reopening but Covid-19 cases continue spiking, markets negative. Standoff with China continues in the Himalayas, the situation is tense and could escalate rapidly. No significant data.
Australian Dollar remains under pressure as bull-market correction continues. High potential for more downside. Australia stocks and currency could have a significant vulnerability to sudden downside shifts in sentiment as a proxy for global risk as momentum in global recovery trade appears to be ebbing.
Community infections are increasing again in Victoria, Supermarkets limiting supplies. Markets negative.
Friday Australia Balance of Trade, short-term volatility only.
North korean tensions have faded, markets positive. Covid-19 risks in Tokyo and Osaka. Heavy data week ahead. Ind. Prod, Tanken, Ret.Sales. Expected to show Japan’s recovery is very slow. Local markets negative.
The oil demand recovery story was dealt a blow this week after the US registered the biggest-ever jump in coronavirus cases, suggesting many states may have to visit regional lockdowns soon. States will do their best to avoid a complete reversal with reopening phases, so the economic recovery should not complete stall out.
WTI crude has not been able to do much after capturing the $40 level and seems destined to continue to consolidate between the $35 and $42 level over the next couple weeks. The rapid demand rebound is not happening, but stimulus efforts, pauses in reopening of businesses, improved treatments for the virus are limiting the downward pressure on crude prices.
Oil prices are slightly higher in early trade mirroring the broader fluctuations with US equities.
After nearly testing the $1800 an ounce level earlier in the week, gold prices are consolidating as the US dollar firms up. Gold will continue to see strong support as the coronavirus situation deteriorates globally and as central banks and governments will continue to pump in more stimulus to avoid strains to the financial system and to salvage as many jobs as possible.
Gold prices (in dollar-terms) seem destined for record high territory as the latest spike in COVID-19 cases will see a much slower economic recovery that will keep the stimulus trade going strong. The global recession might be deeper than expected, but a scramble for cash (extreme risk aversion forces investors to sell their gold positions for cash) will not likely take place for gold given the optimism with eventual rebound and breakthroughs on the treatment and vaccine front.
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.