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European open – Brexit, Italy

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Sterling takes another Boris bashing

This week had the potential to be one of the quieter of the summer but the various political soap opera’s around the world have once again ensured we will not go without drama.

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

On Wednesday, Boris Johnson took the highly controversial decision to suspend Parliament for around five weeks until the middle of October, when the Queen’s speech will reveal the legislative agenda of his new government. While proroguing Parliament isn’t itself unusual, this will be the longest suspension since 1945 and comes at a rather suspicious time.

Despite what number 10 would have us believe, it’s quite clear that this move is a highly political one aimed at preventing MPs from blocking no-deal, forcing individual’s to show their hand and at the same time, sending a message to Brussels that the government is serious about leaving on 31 October.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

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Naturally, the more convincing Boris is, the faster the pound falls. Put simply, no-deal is the most severe form of Brexit and until we better understand how it will be handled, worst case scenario’s will continue to be priced in. Brexit may have already taken a heavy toll on sterling but darker days probably lie ahead for the currency.

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Italian investors buoyed by coalition agreement

Italy – often a source of political instability for markets – is giving us quite the opposite this week, after Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party agreed to form a coalition government following days of talks. The agreement means we won’t have an election in the Autumn and any budget confrontation with Brussels later this year may be less fierce than last.

The two parties still very much have their differences and it’s unlikely to be a harmonious relationship but it will likely be a better match than the last. Markets have welcomed the move that ensures some political stability for now, with Italian yields falling considerably and pushing up to two years of the yield into negative territory.

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam

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