AUD/USD – RBA downgrades growth outlook, but Aussie yawns

AUD/USD has ticked higher in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6994, up 0.08% on the day. On the fundamentals front, the RBA released its quarterly monetary policy statement. In the U.S., the focus remains on inflation indicators, with the release of consumer inflation reports. CPI is expected to remain steady at 0.4%, while the core reading is projected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%.

The RBA released its quarterly policy statement on Thursday, sending a pessimistic message to the markets. The bank downgraded its GDP forecast to  2.75%, down from 3.0% in February. Inflation remains low, and the RBA rate statement, released on Tuesday, said that the labor market would have to improve before inflation could reach the bank’s target of 2.0%. The RBA has been dovish about the economic outlook, and thus surprised the markets when it did not lower the key interest rate earlier this week. Despite the cloudy economic outlook, rate-setters are hopeful that the limping economy can rebound without the help of a rate cut.

The trade war between the U.S. and China has taken a heavy toll on the Chinese economy. China’s trade surplus fell sharply in April, dropping from 221 billion yuan to 94 billion ($32.6 billion to $13.8 billion). As well, Chinese exports declined 2.7% in April, on a year-to year basis. This was a sharper drop than the estimate of a 2.3% decline. A slowdown in China has damaged the Australian economy, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner.

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AUD/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (May 9)

  • 21:30 RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Friday (May 10)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -165.2B

*All release times are DST

* Key events are in bold

AUD/USD for Friday, May 10, 2019

Open: 0.6989 High: 0.7019 Low: 0.6978 Close: 0.6994

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.6744 0.6825 0.6970 0.7085 0.7190 0.7240

AUD/USD posted gains in the Asian session but then retracted. The pair is flat in European trade

  • 0.6970 is providing weak support
  • 0.7085 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 0.6970 to 0.7085

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6970, 0.6825 and 0.6744
  • Above: 0.7085, 0.7190, 0.7240, and 0.7315

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.