EUR/USD – Euro points upwards as eurozone GDP beats estimate

EUR/USD has posted gains for two days straight and the upward trend continues on Tuesday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1212, up 0.17% on the day. After a quiet start to the week, there are a host of German and eurozone events. German GfK consumer climate remained pegged at 10.4, just above the forecast of 10.3 points. Investors will be keeping a keen eye on German CPI, with an estimate of 0.5%, and eurozone Flash GDP, which is expected to rise slightly to 0.3%. In the U.S., Chicago PMI is expected to rise to 59.1, and CB Consumer Confidence is also projected to climb to 126.2 points. On Wednesday, the U.S. releases ADP nonfarm payrolls and the Federal Reserve issues a rate statement.

Is a U.S-China trade deal imminent? Negotiations will continue on April 30, in Beijing, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin waxed positive on Sunday, saying that the talks were in their “final laps”. However, Mnuchin cautioned that the talks could still end without an agreement. The nasty trade war between the two largest economies in the world has rocked the global economy and curbed growth. If the sides can hammer out an agreement, investor risk appetite would likely soar, which could boost the euro against the safe-haven greenback.

The Federal Reserve has said it expects to hold interest rate levels for the rest of the year, and the most recent inflation numbers will reinforce that stance. The Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflation, came in at 0.0% in March and 0.1% in February (the two events were released on Tuesday due to the government shutdown earlier this year). On an annualized basis, the indicator gained 1.6%, just shy of the estimate of 1.7%. There was better news from consumer spending, which jumped 0.9% in March, compared to the estimate of 0.7%. The strong reading was a result of increased spending on motor vehicles and health care.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (April 30)

  • 1:30 French Flash GDP. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%
  • 2:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Estimate 10.3. Actual 10.4
  • 2:00 German Import Prices. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.0%
  • 2:45 French Consumer Spending. Estimate 0.4%. Actual -0.1%
  • 2:45 French Government Budget Balance. Actual -40.7B
  • 2:45 French Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.2%
  • 3:00 Spanish Flash GDP. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.7%
  • 3:00 Spanish Flash CPI. Estimate 1.5%. Actual 1.5%
  • All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.5%
  • 3:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -6K. Actual -12K
  • 4:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 10.6%. Actual 10.2%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.4%
  • 5:00 Italian Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.2%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 7.8%. Actual 7.7%
  • Tentative – Italian 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 2.59/1.4
  • 6:00 Italian Preliminary GDP. Estimate -0.1%
  • 8:30 US Employment Cost Index. Estimate 0.7%
  • 9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 3.7%
  • 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 59.1
  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 126.2
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 1.1%

Wednesday (May 1)

  • 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 181K
  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <2.50%
  • 14:00 FOMC Press Conference

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, April 30, 2019

EUR/USD for April 30 at 5:15 DST

Open: 1.1185 High: 1.1216 Low: 1.1176 Close: 1.1212

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0950 1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted slight gains in European trade

  • 1.1120 is providing support
  • 1.1212 is under pressure in resistance
  • Current range: 1.1120 to 1.1212

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0950
  • Above: 1.1212, 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.