EUR/USD – Lack of fundamentals leaves euro drifting

EUR/USD is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1274, up 0.12% on the day. In economic news, there are no German or Eurozone events. In the U.S., the key event is JOLTS Jobs Openings, which is expected to drop to 7.54 million. Wednesday promises to be busy. The ECB will set its monthly interest rate and release a policy statement. The U.S. will release key inflation data. CPI is expected to improve to 0.3% and Core CPI is projected to climb to 0.2%. As well, the FOMC releases the minutes of the March policy meeting.

The focus will be on central bankers on Wednesday, with key events at the ECB and the Federal Reserve. The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at a flat 0.00%, where they have been pegged since March of 2016. Investors will be more interested in the rate statement, as a dovish message to the markets could push the euro lower. ECB policymakers have acknowledged the slowdown which has gripped Germany and the eurozone. The manufacturing sector has been particularly hard hit, as a slump in global demand has hurt exports, such as German cars and auto parts. Last week, the ECB minutes from the March meeting were pessimistic, as policymakers acknowledged that the economic outlook remained bleak. If the rate statement is a repeat performance, the euro is likely to point downward.

Investors will have to quickly shift focus from the ECB to the Federal Reserve, which releases the minutes of the March meeting. At the meeting, the Fed  said it would start tapering the reduction of its balance sheet in May. This marks a loosening of policy, and comes in response to weaker economic data out of the U.S. in recent months. The minutes should be treated as a market-mover, and a dovish tone could sour investors and send the dollar lower.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (April 9)

  • 4:00 Italian Retail Sales. Estimate -0.2%. Actual 0.1%
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 7.54M

Wednesday (April 10)

  • 7:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate. Estimate 0.00%
  • 7:45 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
  • 8:30 ECB Press Conference
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 14:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, April 9, 2019

EUR/USD for April 9 at 6:00 DST

Open: 1.1261 High: 1.1281 Low: 1.1255 Close: 1.1274

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553

EUR/USD showed little movement in the Asian session and has posted small gains in European trade

  • 1.1212 is providing support
  • 1.1300 is a weak resistance line. It could be tested on Tuesday
  • Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1212, 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0951
  • Above: 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.