EUR/USD – Euro yawns despite strong German services PMI

EUR/USD has ticked lower in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1328, down 0.10% on the day. It’s a busy day in the eurozone, with the focus on services PMI reports. Germany and the eurozone services PMI both improved in February, with readings of 55.1 and 52.3, respectively. Eurozone retail sales rebounded with a strong gain of 1.3%. In the U.S., the key event is ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to climb to 57.4 points. In the U.S., employment numbers will be in the spotlight for the remainder of the week, starting with ADP nonfarm payrolls on Wednesday.

The eurozone services sector has looked stronger than manufacturing, which continues to struggle. German Final Services PMI climbed to 55.3 in February, marking a 5-month high. The eurozone release also improved, although the score of 52.3 points to weak expansion. France and Italy both pulled themselves out of contraction territory, but the scores were just above 50, pointing to stagnation. Meanwhile, consumer spending rebounded in January, after sustaining declines in December. German retail sales jumped 3.3%, while the eurozone release climbed 1.3%.

Germany is a bellwether for the rest of the eurozone, and Friday’s data pointed to a strong labor market but trouble in the manufacturing sector. On the employment front, German unemployment rolls fell by 21 thousand, crushing the estimate of -5 thousand. The eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% in January, down from 7.9% a month earlier. The manufacturing industry continues to struggle, as the global trade war has reduced the demand for European exports. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs in February came in below the 50-mark, which separates contraction from expansion.

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Trade talk hopes suggest positive start for Europe

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (March 5)

• 3:15 Spanish Services PMI. Estimate 54.2. Actual 54.5
• 3:45 Italian Services PMI. Estimate 49.5. Actual 50.4
• 3:50 French Services PMI. Estimate 49.8. Actual 50.2
• 3:55 German Final Services PMI. Estimate 55.1. Actual 55.3
  
• 4:00 Eurozone Services PMI. Estimate 52.3. Actual 52.8
  
• 5:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Estimate 1.3%. Actual 1.3%
  
• 7:30 US FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
• 9:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 56.2
• 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.4
• 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 597K
• Tentative US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 51.2
• 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate 17.3B

Wednesday (March 6)

• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 190K

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, March 5, 2019

EUR/USD for March 5 at 6:30 EST

Open: 1.1340 High: 1.1341 Low: 1.1316 Close: 1.1328

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD ticked lower in the Asian session. The pair has been flat for most of the European session

• 1.1300 is providing support
• 1.1434 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
• Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

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