USD/CAD – Canadian dollar rallies as investor sentiment improves

The Canadian dollar is having a good week, posting gains for a third straight day. In the Friday session, the pair is trading at 1.3445, down 0.31% on the day. Employment data will be in the spotlight on both sides of the border, highlighted by U.S. nonfarm payrolls and wage growth, both of which are expected to improve in the December releases. The Canadian economy is expected to create 6.8 thousand jobs in December, after a banner release in November of 94.1 thousand. Traders should be prepared for some movement from the pair in the North American session.

After a dismal December, the Canadian dollar has started off January surprisingly well. The currency is up 1.3% this week, despite continuing swings in the equity markets. As a minor currency, the Canadian dollar is sensitive to investor risk appetite, and turmoil in the markets has translated into volatility for the currency. There is renewed optimism in the markets, as the U.S and China will hold face-to-face talks next week and tackle the ongoing trade war between them, which has shaken the stock markets for months.

A panel discussion with Fed Chair Jerome Powell in Atlanta could prove to be as market-mover at the end of the trading week. The Fed faced criticism for its overly hawkish rate statement at the December meeting, when the Fed raised rates for the fourth time in 2018. The statement unnerved investors and contributed to sharp losses in the equity markets. Powell may use this opportunity to reassure investors by sending a dovish message. The Fed is currently forecasting two rate hikes next year, but many analysts are concerned that continuing to tighten policy when there are signs of an economic slowdown could be a serious mistake.

More of the same in Asian session

Markets bounce ahead of jobs report and Powell

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (January 4)

  • 8:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate 6.8K
  • 8:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.7%
  • 8:30 Canadian RMPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 Canadian IPPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 179K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.7%
  • 9:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 53.5
  • 10:15 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 11:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.8M

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, January 4, 2019

USD/CAD, January 4 at 6:45 EST

Open: 1.3487 High: 1.3497 Low: 1.3432 Close: 1.3445

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3200 1.3290 1.3383 1.3552 1.3696 1.3793

USD/CAD edged higher in the Asian session but has surrendered these gains in European trade

  • 1.3383 is a weak support line
  • 1.3552 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3383 to 1.3552

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3383, 1.3292 and 1.3200
  • Above: 1.3552, 1.3696 and 1.3793

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.