DAX trading sideways as eurozone inflation within expectations

The DAX index is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. Currently, the DAX is at 12,808, up 0.08% on the day. In economic news, German retail sales rebounded with a gain of 1.2%, edging above the estimate of 1.1%. In the eurozone, CPI Flash Estimate edged up to 2.1%, above the forecast of 2.1%. Core CPI Flash Estimate gained 1.2%, above the forecast of 1.1%. Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP dipped to 0.3%, shy of the estimate of 0.4%.

As the locomotive of Europe, Germany’s economic data is closely scrutinized by investors and is a bellwether of the health of the eurozone economy. Retail sales have shown mostly declines in 2018, pointing to weak consumer spending. However, after a sharp 2.1% decline in May, there was a strong rebound in June, with a gain of 1.2%. On Monday, Preliminary CPI improved with a gain of 0.3% in July, up from 0.1% a month earlier. The reading was just shy of the forecast of 0.4%. In the eurozone, the inflation estimate for July ticked higher, but the GDP gain of 0.3% was a disappointment. The reading missed the estimate and marked the smallest gain since Q3 of 2016. The eurozone economy hit some headwinds in the first quarter, but second-quarter data has been better and the ECB remains on track to wind up its bond-purchase program at the end of the year. The massive stimulus program gets mixed marks, as the eurozone economy is in a growth stage, but inflation remains well below the ECB target of just below the 2 percent level. On Wednesday, the focus will be on manufacturing PMIs, with both Germany and the eurozone expected to show stronger expansion in the July readings.

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Economic Calendar

Tuesday (July 31)

  • 2:00 German Retail Sales. Estimate 1.1%
  • 3:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -10K
  • 5:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 2.0%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 1.0%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP. Estimate 0.4%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 8.3%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Tuesday, July 31 at 7:50 DST

Previous Close: 12,798 Open: 12,798 Low: 12,738 High: 12,826 Close: 12,808

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.