GBP/USD – British pound higher despite higher UK deficit

The British pound has steadied on Friday, after posting losses for most of the week. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3067, up 0.42% on the day. On the release front, Britain’s debt widened to GBP 4.5 billion, higher than the estimate of GBP 3.6 billion. There are no U.S indicators on the schedule.

Soft British indicators this week have weighed on the pound, which has declined 1.2% this week. Employment data was weaker than expected on Tuesday, and this was followed by a soft CPI release a day later. On Thursday, retail sales declined 0.5%, surprising the markets which had expected a gain of 0.1%. This marked the first decline since March. The weak numbers have dampened expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates at its August meeting. With the May government continuing to squabble over Brexit and negotiations with the EU at a standstill, the pound could face further headwinds and drop under the symbolic 1.30 level.

The tariff slugfest between the U.S and its major trading partners has raised serious concerns not just with investors, but with Federal Reserve policymakers as well. The Federal Reserve Beige Book for July, released on Wednesday, was rife with references to ‘tariffs’. This trend started in the April Beige Book after President Trump threatened in March to impose tariffs on China. Most of the twelve Fed regional districts referred to tariffs in their individual reports, which make up the Beige Book. Some Fed policymakers have also voiced their concern over the impact that tariffs could have on the U.S economy and is an issue the Fed will have to take into consideration, as it mulls over rate policy for the next six months.

  Yuan’s fall extends to a fourth straight day


GBP/USD Fundamentals

Friday (July 20)

  • 4:30 British Public Sector Net Borrowing. Estimate 4.5B. Actual 3.6B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold


GBP/USD for Friday, July 20, 2018

GBP/USD July 20 at 8:50 DST

Open: 1.3013 High: 1.3070 Low: 1.2995 Close: 1.3062


GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2706 1.2852 1.2996 1.3088 1.3186 1.3263

GBP/USD showed limited movement in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has edged higher in North American trade

  • 1.2996 was tested earlier in support
  • 1.3088 is under pressure in resistance, following gains by GBP/USD on Friday
  • Current range: 1.2996 to 1.3088

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2996, 1.2852 and 1.2706
  • Above: 1.3088, 1.3186, 1.3263 and 1.3494

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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