GBP/USD – Unemployment Claims Sparkle But Pound Yawns

The British pound is unchanged in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3389, up 0.05% on the day. On the release front, Britain released key employment numbers. Wage growth edged down to 2.5%, matching the forecast. Unemployment claims dropped by 7.7 thousand, much better than the estimate of a gain of 11.3 thousand. The unemployment rate remained pegged at 0.3% for a third straight month. In the US, consumer inflation numbers were within expectations. CPI remained pegged at 0.2% and Core CPI edged up to 0.2%, just above the forecast of 0.1%. On Wednesday, the US will release PPI reports and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates to a range between 1.75% and 2.00%. The U.K will publish inflation indicators, led by CPI.

Wage growth in the U.K continues to lag behind inflation, which is hampering consumer spending. The labor market remains tight, but surprisingly, this has not translated into stronger wages for British workers. Where does this leave the Bank of England? Policymakers will remain hesitant to raise interest rates, unless inflation reverses its downward trend and key economic indicators move higher. The BoE will convene on June 21 for a policy meeting, and the bank is expected to hold the benchmark rate at 0.50 percent.

The leaders of the U.S and North Korea met in a historic summit in Singapore on Tuesday. The joint statement put out by leaders was short on details, but President Trump said that President Kim Jong-un had reaffirmed its full commitment to complete denuclearization of North Korea. Although the crucial issue of verification was not addressed, there’s no denying that tensions have significantly eased and that the summit could mark a first step in bringing peace to the Korean peninsula. As close neighbors of the North Korean regime, South Korea and Japan will be watching these new developments closely. North Korean missiles represent a significant threat to Japan’s security, and Japan will want to see significant de-nuclearization steps by North Korea before the U.S removes any troops from South Korea.

  It’s showtime!

  Dollar Seeks Central Bank Guidance

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (June 12)

  • 4:30 British Average Earnings Index. Estimate 2.5%. Actual 2.5%
  • 4:30 British Claimant Count Change. Estimate 11.3K. Actual -7.7K
  • 4:30 British Unemployment Rate. Estimate 4.2%. Actual 4.2%
  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 105.2. Actual 107.8
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction
  • 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -119.0B

Wednesday (June 13)

  • 4:30 British CPI. Estimate 2.4%
  • 4:30 British PPI Input. Estimate 1.8%
  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 14:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <2.00%
  • 14:30 US FOMC Press Conference

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Tuesday, June 12, 2018

GBP/USD June 12 at 11:25 DST

Open: 1.3382 High: 1.3419 Low: 1.3342 Close: 1.3389

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3088 1.3186 1.3301 1.3398 1.3494 1.3613

GBP/USD inched lower in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair gained ground but then gave up most of those gains. GBP/USD posted small losses in North American trade but has recovered these losses

  • 1.3301 is providing support
  • 1.3398 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line
  • Current range: 1.3301 to 1.3398

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3301, 1.3186 and 1.3088
  • Above: 1.3398, 1.3494, 1.3613 and 1.3712

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (67%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving upwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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