EUR/USD – Euro Edges Higher in Light Fundamentals Session

EUR/USD has posted gains in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1791, up 0.19% on the day. It’s a very quiet start to the week on the release front, with no major events. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment and the US publishes CPI reports.

The markets were braced for a bumpy meeting between the Group of Seven leaders on Friday, but the sharp disagreements between President Trump and the other six members were far worse than expected. Trump openly clashed with the other leaders over his recent tariffs against the European Union and Canada and pulled back his endorsement of the traditional post-summit statement put out by the other members. The undiplomatic Trump also tweeted that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, who hosted the summit, was “dishonest and weak”. Canada and the EU are furious over recent US tariffs, especially because Trump pushed them through on the basis of ‘national security’. The glaring cracks in G-7 unity could cast a long shadow on trade relations between the U.S and the “G-6”, with business confidence and capital spending at risk if the tariff spat continues.

The ECB hold its next policy meeting on Thursday, and the markets will be looking for any clues with regard to the ECB’s asset-purchase program. Currently, the bank is purchasing EUR 30 billion/mth, and the scheme is scheduled to wind up in September. However, some ECB policymakers want to phase out the program slowly, rather than turn off the tap completely in September. ECB Chief Economist recently said that the ECB board members would conduct a detailed discussion about the fate of the stimulus package at the June meeting. Mario Draghi will likely make mention of the program at his press conference, so traders should be prepared for some volatility from EUR/USD on Thursday.

  Calm before chaos but more likely the fear of the unknown.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (June 11)

  • 4:00 Italian Industrial Production. Estimate -0.7%
  • 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction

Tuesday (June 12)

  • 1:30 French Final Private Payrolls. Estimate 0.3%
  • 5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate -14.6
  • 5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 0.1
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.1%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, June 11, 2018

EUR/USD for June 11 at 5:20 DST

Open: 1.1769 High: 1.1821 Low: 1.1769 Close: 1.1791

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1448 1.1613 1.1718 1.1809 1.1915 1.1996

EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian session and is showing limited movement in the European session

  • 1.1718 is providing support
  • 1.1809 has switched to a resistance role after gains by EUR/USD on Monday

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1718, 1.1613 and 1.1448
  • Above: 1.1809, 1.1915, 1.1996 and 1.2154
  • Current range: 1.1718 to 1.1809

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio showed little movement last week, and the trend has continued on Monday. Currently, long positions have a majority (58%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to climb to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.