USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Knocking on 1.30 in Holiday-Thin Trade

The Canadian dollar is slightly lower at the start of the new trading week. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2982, up 0.09% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian or U.S events on the schedule. The U.S markets are closed for Memorial Day, so traders can expect a quiet day from the pair. On Tuesday, the U.S releases CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to dip to 128.7 points.

The drama and uncertainty continue to swirl around the upcoming summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which may or may not take place on June 12 in Singapore. Just a few days ago, Trump sent a letter to Kim, saying that Trump was canceling the much-anticipated meeting. However, the response from Pyongyang was restrained, and the White House has sent a team to Singapore in case the summit is back on. Meanwhile, the leaders of South Korea and North Korea met on the weekend. That meeting was completely unexpected and raises hopes of a breakthrough in the long conflict between the two Koreas.

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure and has lost 1 percent in the month of May. On Monday, USD/CAD is just shy of the symbolic 1.30 level, which has held firm since March. The currency could face a rough week if, as expected, the Bank of Canada holds interest rates at 1.25 percent. Inflation has moved closer to the BoC target of 2 percent and economic growth has been steady, so the bank may opt for the sidelines when policymakers meet on Wednesday. However, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to raise rates next month, the Canadian dollar will be less attractive to investors.

  Buckle in for an action-packed holiday-shortened week

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (May 28)

  • There are no Canadian or U.S events

Tuesday (May 29)

  • 9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 6.5%
  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 128.2

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, May 28, 2018

USD/CAD, May 28 at 8:25 DST

Open: 1.2971 High: 1.2995 Low: 1.2961 Close: 1.2982

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2757 1.2850 1.2943 1.3015 1.3125 1.3273

USD/CAD ticked higher in the Asian session and has recorded small gains in the European session

  • 1.2943 is providing support
  • 1.3015 is a weak line of resistance
  • Current range: 1.2943 to 1.3015

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2943, 1.2850, 1.2757 and 1.2687
  • Above: 1.3015, 1.3125 and 1.3273

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, USD/CAD ratio is showing short positions with a majority (65%). This is indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions to move downwards.

  1. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.
Kenny Fisher

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