USD/CAD – Struggling Canadian Dollar at 9-Month Low

The Canadian dollar has started the week with slight gains in the Monday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3062, down 0.27% on the day. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no US or Canadian releases on the schedule. On Tuesday, Canada releases Wholesale Sales.

The Canadian dollar suffered its worst week since May 2016, sliding 2.7 percent. USD/CAD pushed above the 1.31 level earlier on Monday, as the pair trades at its highest level since June. The Canadian dollar lost more ground on Friday, after Canadian Manufacturing Sales declined for the third time in four months. The key indicator declined 1.0%, missing the estimate of -0.8%. In the US, the week ended on a mixed note.  Construction data disappointed, as Building Permits dropped to 1.30 million, shy of the estimate of 1.30 million. Housing Starts followed a similar trend, falling to 1.24 million and missing the forecast of 1.29 million. There was better news from consumer confidence, as UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 102.0, beating the estimate of 99.3 points. This marked the first time that the indicator has been over the symbolic 100 level since October 2017.

Canadian policymakers continue to cast a nervous eye towards the Trump White House. The latest worry is the steel tariffs that the US has imposed, with the European Union threatening to retaliate against a host of US products. Although Canada was exempted from the tariffs, this could prove temporary, and the threat of a global trade war is not good news for Canada. Added to this mix is rising uncertainty over the NAFTA agreement. The US is demanding far-reaching concessions from Canada and Mexico, and the protectionist Trump administration could decide to exit NAFTA, which has been a key driver of economic growth for Canada. With the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates later this week for the first time in 2018, the fragile Canadian dollar could find itself mired in more headwinds.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (March 19)

  • 9:40 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks

Tuesday (March 20)

  • 8:30 Canadian Wholesales Sales. Estimate 0.1%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, March 19, 2018

USD/CAD, March 19 at 6:15 EST

Open: 1.3097 High: 1.3125 Low: 1.3060 Close: 1.3062

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2865 1.2920 1.3014 1.3165 1.3260 1.3350

USD/CAD edged higher in the Asian session but has reversed directions and is heading lower in European trade

  • 1.3014 is providing support
  • 1.3165 is the next line in resistance
  • Current range: 1.3014 to 1.3165

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3014, 1.2920, 1.2865 and 1.2757
  • Above: 1.3165, 1.3260 and 1.3350

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (64%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.