Gold Starts Week with Gains, Fed Rate Hike Ahead

Gold has posted gains in the Monday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1318.29, up 0.30% on the day. On the release front, there are no US indicators on the schedule.

On Friday, US numbers were mixed. Construction data disappointed, as Building Permits dropped to 1.30 million, shy of the estimate of 1.30 million. Housing Starts followed a similar trend, falling to 1.24 million and missing the forecast of 1.29 million. There was better news from consumer confidence, as UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 102.0, beating the estimate of 99.3 points. This marked the first time that the indicator has been over the symbolic 100 level since October 2017.

Traders should be prepared for some volatility from gold prices this week, with the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates on Wednesday. This would mark the first hike of 2018. According to the CME Group, the odds of a quarter-point raise stand at an impressive 91 percent. What can we expect from the Fed during the year? The pressing question is how many rate hikes will we see in 2018. The current Fed projection remains at three hikes, but a robust US economy has raised speculation that the Fed could accelerate the pace to four hikes, which would be good news for the US dollar. Investors will be keeping a close eye on key US data, especially upcoming inflation indicators. If these numbers improve, we’re likely to see four rate hikes in 2018.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Monday (March 19)

  • 9:40 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

XAU/USD for Monday, March 19, 2018

XAU/USD March 19 at 11:45 EST

Open: 1314.43 High: 1319.73 Low: 1307.77 Close: 1318.35

 

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1260 1285 1307 1337 1375 1416
  • XAU/USD posted small losses in the Asian session. The pair showed little movement in European trade and has posted gains in North American trade
  • 1307 is providing support
  • 1337 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1307 to 1337

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1307, 1285 and 1260
  • Above: 1337, 1375, 1416 and 1433

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (56%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing to move higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.