API Inventories Throw Fuel on Oil’s Fire

The first inventory figures of the weeks from the API showed a massive drawdown, fuelling crude’s rally still higher through the Asia session.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventories added fuel to the oil fire overnight, reporting a massive draw of 5.1 million barrels against an expected draw of 1.4 million barrels. This saw Brent and WTI move still higher in New York with both contracts rallying one percent. Brent closed at 61.30 and WTI at 54.45, both near the highs of the New York.

That said, we sound a note of caution in Asia this morning as both contract’s daily relative strength indexes (RSI) have moved in to strongly overbought territory. Given the pace of the move and the generally bullish tone in the market, both contracts could be vulnerable to a short-term downward correction. The RSI has been an excellent indicator of these sorts of corrections in 2017.

Both crude contracts have continued to rally in Asia, spurred on by the news that Saudi Arabia will raise prices to two-year highs to Asian customers, and with OPEC compliance rising to 92.0%.

Brent Crude has edged 30 cents higher in early trade to 61.85 having earlier touched 62.00 with little to no technical resistance of note past this level. Support is at 60.50 and 60.00 with a break of that level signalling a deeper correction is possible to the 58.00 area.

Brent Daily

WTI has raced 40 cents higher to 54.85  having touched 55.10 earlier in the session. A  break of this level clears the road to around 56.00. A daily close above 54.70 is significant as WTI would finally have broken its long-term resistance zone between 53.50 and  54.70. Conversely, a break of 53.50  would signal a correction to at least 52.50 and possibly 52.00.

WTI Daily

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Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, from 2016 to August 2022
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley was OANDA’s Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV and Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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