EUR/USD – Euro Steady, Shrugs off Strong German Business Sentiment Report

The euro has ticked higher in the Tuesday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1650. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate climbed to 116.0 points, beating the estimate of 114.9 points. In the US, today’s key event is CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to slip to 116.9 points. On Wednesday, the US releases New Home Sales and the Federal Reserve will publish its rate statement.

German Ifo Business Climate impressed in July, as the indicator strengthened for a sixth straight month. The indicator hit another record high of 116.0, surprising the markets which had forecast a small drop from the previous reading. Clements Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute, continues to use superlatives to describe the German economy, calling sentiment in the business sector “euphoric”. Fuest added that optimism in the business sector is at its highest since Germany’s reunification. German data continues to point upwards, and the robust economy has been the locomotive behind a reinvigorated eurozone economy. The marked improvement in economic conditions in the eurozone has sent the euro soaring, as the currency is up 9.8% since March 1.

The Federal Reserve is holding its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the odds of a rate hike at just 3%, the markets will be focused on the Fed’s rate statement, which will be released on Wednesday. US numbers in the second quarter have been mixed, and inflation remains well below the Fed target of 2.%. Given these economic conditions, investors are unsure if the Fed will raise rates in December, with the odds currently at 47%, according to the CME Group. Analysts will be looking for nuances in the language of the statement, and a dovish tilt from the Fed could hurt the dollar and boost the red-hot euro. Another issue for Fed policymakers is the $4.2 trillion bond portfolio, a result of the aggressive quantitative easing program which was put in place after the financial crisis in 2008. In June, the Fed outlined plans to reduce its bloated balance sheet, with experts circling September as the start date of the reduction.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (July 25)

• 2:00 German Import Prices. Estimate -0.7%. Actual -1.1%
• 4:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Estimate 114.9. Actual 116.0
• 9:00 Belgian NBB Business Climate. Estimate -1.9
• 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%
• 9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 5.8%
• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 116.5
• 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 7

Wednesday (July 26)

• 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 615K
• 14:00 US FOMC Statement
• 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <1.25%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, July 25, 2017

EUR/USD Tuesday, July 25 at 5:20 EDT

Open: 1.1681 High: 1.1684 Low: 1.1630 Close: 1.1652

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD had edged higher in the Asian session and inched lower in European trade

• 1.1616 is providing support
• 1.1712 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1616, 1.1534, 1.1465 and 1.1366
• Above: 1.1712, 1.1876 and 1.1996
• Current range: 1.1616 to 1.1712

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing gains in long positions. Currently, short positions have a strong majority (66%), indicative of EUR/USD reversing directions and moving downwards.

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