Safe Havens Sink Post Election

Macron’s win sees investors and traders returning to risk assets.


Asia’s open saw gold drop $20 on safe haven liquidation, following Macron’s win in the 1st round French presidential voting. Gold traded as low as 1265.50 from a 1284 close in New York before rallying back to the 1272 level.

With geopolitical uncertainty now subsiding globally at a rate of knots, for now, the way lies clear for a possible deeper correction in gold after multiple failures in the 1285/1295 region. Barring a massive surprise from Ms Le Pen in the 2nd round, the intricacies of the French presidency and legislature elections will fade from meaningfully affecting the price of precious metals going forward.

Gold’s present level is 1274  with 1272 nearby a daily support and an intraday pivot. Resistance lies at 1284 with support at 1260 below and then 1255, the 200-day moving average.

Silver suffered much the same fate as gold. Dropping from a 17.9300 close to as low as 17.6250 this morning. However, its rebound has been much more constructive, trading at 17.8500 as we speak. This may have been due to silver’s price action being more negative late last week when compared to golds, and thus long positioning had been reduced more than gold already.

Silver has support at today’s low at 17.6250 and then 17.3600 the 100-day moving average.

Resistance sits at 17.9300 and the 18.0000, the 200-day moving average.


WTI spot has rallied at 0.5% this morning, partially unwinding Friday’s 2% sell-off in both it and Brent. A Macron victory in France has reduced uncertainty, but an OPEC/non-OPEC working group recommending an extension to the production cut deal has probably had the greater influence.

The reality is though that the world is awash in oil, and the Baker-Hugh’s Rig Count’s mandatory rise on Friday for the 14th consecutive week shows that U.S. shale isn’t going away at these levels. Barring supply disruptions or geopolitical events, and with shale producers still heavy futures sellers on any rally, sustained rallies could be difficult ahead of late May’s OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting.


Today WTI spot trades at 49.50 with resistance at 50.00 and support at 48.50, its 200-day moving average.

Brent spot trades at 52.20 with resistance at 53.00 and support at 50.80, its 200-day moving average.

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Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, from 2016 to August 2022
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley was OANDA’s Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes.

He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays.

A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV and Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others.

He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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