EUR/USD is showing gains on Wednesday, in a session marked by sharp volatility. Currently, the pair is trading at the 1.11 line. The pair has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride, surging as high as the 1.13 line, before sharply reversing directions and dropping below the 1.11 level. The volatility is in reaction to the shocking news early Wednesday that Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. Trump garnered 276 electoral votes, beating Hillary Clinton who won 218 electoral votes. On the economic front, there are no Eurozone economic releases. On Thursday, the US will publish unemployment claims, with the estimate standing at 267 thousand.
With global markets in shock after Donald Trump’s election victory, EUR/USD remains unsettled. The US dollar plunged in the Asian session after news that Trump was on his way to victory, as EUR/USD jumped over 300 points. However, the dollar has bounced back in the European session, recovering most of these losses. As Clinton was widely expected to cruise to the White House (a Reuters release on Monday said that Clinton had a 90 percent chance of winning), the equity and currency markets are in turmoil as the unthinkable has become reality. Trump’s victory speech was diplomatic and conciliatory, helping the markets to start to settle down after a tumultuous Asian session.
The news of a Trump electoral victory also shook up the odds of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The odds dropped as low as 40 percent earlier in the day, but have recovered and actually increased. Currently, the markets have priced in at quarter-point hike at 76 percent, up from 71 percent just prior to the election. We could see further movement in the odds in the aftermath of the Trump victory, but it’s looking quite positive for a rate hike, which would mark the first rate move by the Fed since last December.
Wednesday (November 9)
- 10:00 EU Economic Forecasts
- 15:00 US Final Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.2%
- 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.3M
- 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
Thursday (November 10)
- 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 267K
*All release times are EDT
* Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Wednesday, November 9, 2016
EUR/USD November 9 at 11:10 GMT
Open: 1.1018 High: 1.1299 Low: 1.0988 Close: 1.1095
- EUR/USD posted sharp gains in the Asian session, breaking through two resistance lines. However, the pair has given up most of these losses in the European session
- 1.1054 is providing support
- There is resistance at 1.1150
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1054, 1.0957, 1.0821 and 1.0708
- Above: 1.1150, 1.1278 and 1.1366
- Current range: 1.1054 to 1.1150
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in the Wednesday session, despite huge movement in EUR/USD. Currently, short positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD breaking out and moving upwards.