USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Edges Higher, Markets Eye FOMC Statement

USD/CAD has posted slight gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3370. Taking a look at today’s releases, we’ll get at a look at ADP Nonfarm Employment, with an estimate of 166 thousand. The FOMC will conclude its policy meeting and is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent. There are no Canadian economic releases on the schedule. On Thursday, the US releases two key events – unemployment claims and the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI.

The Canadian dollar has reversed directions and posted modest gains this week, boosted by Canada’s GDP in August. The economy’s 0.2% gain was considerably softer than the 0.5% gain in July, but the loonie has held steady, as the markets appear relieved that the economy continues to expand. The Bank of Canada held interest rates at 0.50% in October, but remains cautious and downgraded its economic forecast. Canada will release Employment Change on Friday, and the markets are braced for a decline of 10.0 thousand. If the market forecast is accurate, the Canadian dollar could quickly change direction and lose ground.

The Federal Reserve is in the spotlight, as the bank concludes a 2-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The markets are expecting the Fed to remain on the sidelines, given that the US presidential election takes place next week. The rate statement will be carefully monitored, as analysts comb for hints about the extent of support among FOMC members ahead of the crucial December meeting. There was positive news from the US consumer front on Monday, as Personal Spending rebounded with a 0.5% gain in September, after a flat reading of 0.0% in August. Gold responded to the reading with slight losses. This release comes on the heels of a disappointing consumer spending report on Friday, as UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 87.2 points in October, below expectations and dropping to its lowest level since August 2015.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Wednesday (November 2)

• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 166K
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.6M
• 13:30 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins Speaks
• 14:00 US FOMC Statement
• 14:00 US FOMC Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <0.50%. Actual <0.50%

Thursday (November 3)

• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims
• 8:30 US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.2 points

*All release times are EDT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 2, 2016

USD/CAD November 2 at 8:45 GMT

Open: 1.3391 High: 1.3406 Low: 1.3355 Close: 1.3367

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has lost ground in the European and  North American sessions
• 1.3253 is a strong support level
• 1.3371 remains fluid and is currently a weak resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3253, 1.3120 and 1.3028
• Above: 1.3371, 1.3457, 1.3551 and 1.3648
• Current range: 1.3253 to 1.3371

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio has posted slight movement towards short positions. Currently, short positions command a strong majority (70%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move to lower ground.

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