Oil Price has Deja Vu Moment

While the recent rapid rise in crude oil prices has led some to forecast $60 oil, I think it is more like Déjà vu all over again. I think over the next several months the oil market will act more like the movie “Groundhog Day” where the star, and now the oil market, is caught in a time loop.
In late May 23, sweet crude oil futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange traded at about $48 per barrel. On Friday August 19, crude oil futures closed at $48.52. In between, there has been an OPEC meeting in June and talk of a meeting in Algeria next month to freeze production and crude has traded over $51 and under $40.

OPEC has expanded its membership to 14 with the recent addition of Indonesia and Gabon. With the Energy Information Administration reporting U.S. exports hit a record 662,000 barrels per day in May 2016, perhaps the U.S. should apply for number 15. However the high level of exports is symptomatic of a world oversupplied with oil and that continues to be the case.
The actions of oil producers speak far louder than words. Saudi Arabia is producing record amounts of oil and Iraq just announced that it will boost exports by resuming flows form Kirkuk. Now that Iran has increased production to near pre sanction levels, they may well be inclined to agree to a production freeze. But what good is a freeze if the target level is set equal to the maximum production levels of all the participants?

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza