AUD/USD – Little Movement on Tepid Business Confidence

AUD/USD is showing little movement on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.77 range. On the release front, Australian NAB Business Confidence posted a gain of 3 points. Australian HPI came in at 1.9%. Chinese CPI slipped to 0.8%. In the US, today’s highlight is JOLTS Job Openings.

Australian NAB Business Confidence came in at 3 points in January, little changed from the previous reading of 2 points. Last week, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence disappointed, as the key indicator dropped to 2 points in Q4, down from 6 points in Q3. There was good news on the inflation front, as HPI improved to 1.9%, just shy of the estimate of 2.0%. Meanwhile, Chinese CPI came in at 0.8%, short of the expectation of 1.1%. Weak Chinese inflation could have negative repercussions for the Aussie, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

US releases ended the week with a superb US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January. The key employment indicator improved to 257 thousand in January, up from 252 thousand a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 236 thousand. The Federal Reserve has been clear that US employment numbers will have to be strong before a rate hike kicks in, so the strong NFP report has reinforced expectations for an interest rate in mid-2015, which would be a boost for the US dollar. We’ll get a look at additional US employment data later on Tuesday, with the release of JOLTS Job Openings. The markets are expecting the indicator’s recent upward trend to continue, with an estimate of 5.05 million.

AUD/USD for Tuesday, February 10, 2015

AUD/USD February 10 at 14:15 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7767 H: 0.7842 L: 0.7761

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7403 0.7582 0.7684 0.7799 0.7904 0.8081

 

  • AUD/USD was choppy in the Asian session. The pair has posted losses in the European session and is unchanged early in the North American session.
  • 0.7799 remains busy. This line is currently weak resistance. 0.7904 is stronger.
  • 0.7684 is a strong support level.
  • Current range: 0.7684 to 0.7799

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.7684, 0.7582, 0.7403 and 0.7265
  • Above: 0.7799, 0.7904, 0.8081, 0.8150 and 0.8214

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to slight gains in long positions on Tuesday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 NAB Business Confidence. Actual 3 points.
  • 00:00 Australian HPI. Actual 1.9%.
  • 14:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 101.3 points. Actual 97.9 points.
  • 15:00 US JOLTS Openings. Estimate 5.03M.
  • 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 51.4 points.
  • 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.2%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.