EUR/USD – Stable After Sharp Losses to End Week

The euro is stable on Monday, as EUR/USD trades in the mid-1.13 range. On the release front, there are no major European or US events on the schedule. The German trade surplus widened to EUR 21.8 billion, beating the estimate of EUR 18.2 billion. There was more good news from Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, which jumped to 12.4 points. This marked an 8-month high. In the US, we’ll get a look at the Labor Market Conditions Index.

The euro lost about 160 points on Friday, as US Nonfarm Payrolls improved to 257 thousand in January, up from 252 thousand a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 236 thousand. The strong reading has reinforced expectations for a mid-year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would be a boost for the US dollar.

The Greek government suffered a setback on Friday, as the Standard and Poor’s rating agency downgraded Greece’s debt from B to B-, which is just one level above default. S&P also kept the outlook as “negative”, which indicates that further cuts are possible. This follows the ECB announcement that it will no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral for ECB loans as of February 11. For its part, Greece has pledged not renew the bailout program, which will expire at the end February. There will likely be more developments during the week in Brussels, as EU finance ministers meet on Wednesday, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras attend an EU meeting on Thursday.

EUR/USD for Monday, February 9, 2015

EUR/USD February 9 at 11:00 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1320 H: 1.1359 L: 1.1310

 

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1066 1.1154 1.1231 1.1340 1.1426 1.1525

 

  • EUR/USD has showed limited movement in the Asian and European sessions.
  • 1.1340 was tested in resistance in the European session. It is a weak line which could see more action during the day. 1.1426 is stronger.
  •  1.1231 is a strong support line.
  • Current range: 1.1231 to 1.1340

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
  • Above: 1.1340, 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Monday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the euro has posted small gains. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 18.2B. Actual 21.8B.
  • 9:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. Estimate 3.4 points. Actual 12.4 points.
  • 15:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index.
  • 21:00 US FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.