EUR/USD – Listless Ahead of Euro PMIs

After wrapping up last week with some gains, EUR/USD is flat on Monday. The pair is trading in the low-1.34 range in the European session. On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 209 thousand, well short of the estimate. There was better news from ISM Manufacturing PMI, which improved in July. Taking a look at Monday’s events, Eurozone releases were a disappointment. Spanish Unemployment Change and Sentix Investor Confidence were way off expectations. Eurozone PPI posted a small gain of 0.1%. In the US, today’s sole release is the Loan Officer Survey. The markets are keeping a close on Eurozone Services PMIs, which will be released on Tuesday.

US employment numbers failed to impress last week. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls took a tumble, slipping to 209 thousand, compared to 288 thousand a month earlier. This was well below the estimate of 231 thousand and marked a four-month low. Earlier in the week, Unemployment Claims rose to 302 thousand, very close to the estimate of 303 thousand. There was positive news from the manufacturing sector, as US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.1 points, its best showing since November. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment continues to look strong, coming in at 81.8 points. The index has not been below the 80-point level in 2014, pointing to strong consumer confidence.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs are closely tracked by analysts, as they are important gauges of the health of the manufacturing sectors in the Eurozone economies. The Spanish PMI came in at 53.9 points and the Italian figure at 51.9. Although these fell short of the estimates, they both remained above the 50-point level, which marks expansion. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.8, almost matching the estimate of 51.9.


EUR/USD for Monday, August 4, 2014

EUR/USD August 4 at 9:40 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3422 H: 1.3431 L: 1.3416


EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3175 1.3295 1.3346 1.3487 1.3585 1.3651


  • EUR/USD has been stable in the Asian and European sessions.
  • 1.3346 continues to provide support. 1.3295 is stronger.
  • 1.3487 is the next resistance line. 1.3585 follows.
  • Current range: 1.3346 to 1.3487

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3346, 1.3295, 1.3175 and 1.3104
  • Above: 1.3487, 1.3585, 1.3651 and 1.3786


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Monday trade. This is consistent with the movement displayed by the pair, as the euro has posted small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving higher.


EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate -116.3K. Actual -29.8K.
  • 8:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. Estimate 9.1 points. Actual 2.7 points.
  • 9:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.1%.
  • Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.