USD/JPY – Yen Firm As Japanese GDP Shines

The Japanese yen has edged higher on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-102 range. On the release front, Japanese Final GDP jumped 1.6% in Q1. Current Account posted a surplus for the first time in eight months. Monday’s highlight is Tertiary Industrial Activity, with the markets bracing for a sharp decline in May. In the US, there are no releases on Monday.

Key Japanese releases continue to impress. Final GDP soared 1.6% in Q1, a huge improvement from the weak gain of 0.2% in Q4. The estimate stood at 1.4%. Current Account also looked sharp, posting a surplus for the first time since September. The indicator came in at 0.13 trillion yen, which was short of the estimate of 0.23 trillion. The strong numbers have reinforced the BOJ’s contention that the improving economy will be able to weather the sales tax hike which took effect in April.

In the US, employment numbers were solid late last week. Unemployment Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls, both key indicators, met market expectations. Unemployment Claims came in at 312 thousand, slightly above the estimate of 309 thousand. Nonfarm Employment Change met modest expectations on Friday, adding 217 thousand new jobs. The estimate stood at 214 thousand. The Unemployment Rate stayed pegged at 6.3%, beating the estimate of 6.4%.

USD/JPY for Monday, June 9, 2014

USD/JPY June 9 at 12:25 GMT

USD/JPY 102.42 H: 102.65 L: 102.37

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY has posted slight losses on Monday.
• On the upside, 102.53 is under strong pressure. The next resistance line is at 103.07, which has held firm since early April.
• 101.19 is providing strong support.
• Current range: 101.19 to 102.53

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 101.19, 100.00, 99.57 and 98.97.
• Above: 102.53, 103.07, 104.17 and 105.70.

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Monday. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the yen has posted gains. The ratio continues to be made up of a majority of long positions, indicating trader bias towards the dollar reversing directions and moving upwards.

USD/JPY is trading in the mid-102 range, as the dollar remains at high levels. The pair is almost unchanged in the European session.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

• 5:00 Japanese Consumer Confidence. Estimate 37.7 points. Actual 39.3 points.
• 6:00 Japanese Economy Watchers Sentiment. Estimate 45.2 points. Actual 45.1 points.
• 23:50 Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity. Estimate -3.3%.
• 23:50 Japanese M2 Money Stock. Estimate +3.2%.

*All release times are GMT

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