China’s unprecedented run of better- than-forecast export growth has spurred deeper skepticism of the data at banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the strength of the recovery.
Enlarge image China Export-Data Skepticism Deepens From Goldman to Nomura
A truck carrying shipping containers drives near containers stacked at the Yangshan Deep Water Port in Shanghai. The export data from China contrast with figures from South Korea and nations in Southeast Asia, as well as Chinese government statistics on industrial goods delivered for exports, according to Yu Song of Goldman Sachs. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Gains in overseas shipments exceeded forecasts by at least 7.5 percentage points in December, January and February, the first time that’s happened in three straight months in the eight years Bloomberg has compiled analyst estimates for the data. March figures are due to be released tomorrow at 10 a.m. at a briefing in Beijing, giving the customs administration an opportunity to address the issue.
Overstated exports would mean China is failing to get the boost from global demand that the data suggest as the new government under Premier Li Keqiang seeks to sustain an economic rebound. Theories include companies inflating the value of shipments to bring money into China, according to Nomura Holdings Inc., and exporting the same goods twice as local governments seek to boost data, Goldman Sachs says.
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