Even after 3 major events – 1) US House pushed Debt Limit back 2) Apple stock causing US market to drop 3) Chinese PMI better than expected – USD/SGD barely moved out of the 20 pip consolidation range between 1.226 to 1.228. 1.228 proved to be a tough nut to crack, though lows are steadily getting higher with each minute push, forming a triangle in the process. Looking at the economic news docket, we have US NFP and ISM Manufacturing that could hopefully jolt some life into this pair. Between now till next Friday, keep a watch on the Triangle as the apex draws nearer. Preferably we could see prices breaking out of the Triangle, with next Friday’s data providing the confirmation/additional push for the breakout.
1.228 is the confluence of 61.8% Fib (Aug 2011 High vs Oct 2011 High). After trading below the Fib line, price has failed to move towards the 100% retracement level, instead straddling between 1.218 and 1.228 for an extended period of time. Overall the bearish momentum has stalled, but the bullish sentiment is not obvious. With price sitting just below the Fib now, short-term breakouts can hopefully translate to larger volatility on the weekly chart.
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