Gold traders are the most bullish in 10 weeks and investors are hoarding a record amount of bullion as central banks pledge to do more to spur economic growth.
Eighteen of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and five were bearish. A further four were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since Aug. 24. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products gained the past three months, the best run since August 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They reached a record 2,588.4 metric tons yesterday, the data show.
The Bank of Japan (8301) expanded its asset-purchase program on Oct. 30 for the second time in two months, increasing it by 11 trillion yen ($137 billion). The Federal Reserve said last week it plans to continue buying bonds and central banks from Europe to China have pledged more action to boost economies. Gold rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.
â€œCentral banks are all very concerned about a depression, so theyâ€™re keeping monetary policies as loose as possible,â€ said Mark Oâ€™Byrne, the executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells and stores everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. â€œPeople are buying gold as a store of value to protect against currency depreciation.â€
Gold rose 9.6 percent to $1,713.25 an ounce in London this year, heading for a 12th straight annual gain, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades. The Standard & Poorâ€™s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities lost 1.2 percent since the end of December, and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities climbed 11 percent. Treasuries returned 1.9 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
The BOJ said its fund will increase to 66 trillion yen, a separate credit loan program will stay at 25 trillion yen and it will also offer unlimited loans to banks to boost credit demand. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The European Central Bank has said it is ready to buy bonds of indebted nations and China approved a $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan.
Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and the metal generally earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped 36 percent this year and reached a 16-month high in September.
Via – BusinessWeek
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